Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis & Share Performance Analysis of STZ
📊 Deep Technical Analysis of STZ
When it comes to technical analysis, Constellation Brands is flashing a strong sell across multiple key charts and indicators. Let’s break it down with real numbers:
🔻 1. Moving Averages
5‑Day MA: ≈ $160.78 — SELL signal
10‑Day MA: ≈ $160.55 — BUY, but only marginal
20‑Day MA: ≈ $160.99 — SELL
50‑Day MA: ≈ $164.57 — SELL
100‑Day MA: ≈ $169.14 — SELL
200‑Day MA: ≈ $178.04 — SELL (moneycontrol.com, investing.com, swingtradebot.com)
Simply put, technical analysis shows STZ consistently trading below its key moving averages—short, mid, and long‑term—confirming weak trend structure.
⏬ 2. RSI (Relative Strength Index)
14‑day RSI: ~40.7, which lands in bearish territory, far from bullish (>55) and not yet extreme oversold (<30) (investopedia.com, investing.com).
From a technical analysis standpoint, RSI around 40 indicates that momentum is still under pressure, but a bounce could start if it dips into the 30–35 zone.
📉 3. MACD & Momentum
MACD (12,26): ~–1.17, a clear SELL signal
MACD Histogram: negative, showing no sign of bullish crossover (investopedia.com, investing.com)
The technical analysis here is straightforward: the MACD line is trending below the signal line, underscoring persistent downward momentum, with no short-term reversal visible.
🌀 4. Oscillators & Volatility
Stochastic (9,6): ~46.9 → Neutral
StochRSI (14): ~78 → Overbought within oversold context (investing.com)
ADX (14): ~33 → Sell, indicates strong trend strength
ATR (14): ~1.15 → Activates moderate volatility (investing.com)
Technical analysis signals here are mixed: while oscillators suggest some exhaustion, the ADX points to a strong existing trend—which remains downward.
🔍 Summary of Technical Analysis
Constellation Brands is in a confirmed downtrend:
A sea of red moving average signals
Momentum indicators (RSI & MACD) firmly exhibit bearish bias
Oscillators show no bullish reversal yet
From a technical analysis lens, until STZ reclaims either the 20‑day MA (~$174) or RSI climbs above 50, the sell bias stays strong. This setup favors traders staying on the sidelines or looking for a short-term bounce play near oversold extremes.
⚠️ Traders’ Takeaway
Your technical analysis toolkit says:
STZ is technically weak across timeframes
Watch for a bounce into the mid‑30s RSI and a MACD uptick
Break above 50‑day MA ($164.6) and 20‑day MA ($174) would shift the tide
Until then, the technical analysis view recommends caution—especially for swing traders or those relying heavily on charts.
📘 Fundamental Analysis of Constellation Brands (Ticker: STZ)
When performing a fundamental analysis of STZ, the goal is to uncover the financial health, value, and long-term sustainability of the company—and Constellation offers a compelling story.
🧾 1. Revenue, Profit, and Margins
Revenue (FY 2025): $10.21 billion (a 2% increase YoY) (ir.cbrands.com)
Gross Profit: $5.34 billion, equating to a strong 52.3% gross margin
Operating Income: $3.51 billion, giving a 34.4% operating margin—ahead of many consumer names (investing.com)
Net Income (Reported): –$81 million loss (due to one-off impairments); Comparable Net Income: $2.51 billion (+10%)
Fundamental analysis shines a light here: the loss was driven by non-cash goodwill and asset impairments (especially from divesting lower-margin wine brands), while the core business performed well.
💵 2. EPS and Valuation
Reported EPS (TTM): –$0.45/share; Comparable EPS: $13.78 (+11% YoY) (ir.cbrands.com)
Forward EPS Estimate: ~$12.6x P/E, reflecting analysts’ expectations
Price-to-Sales: 4.85x (csimarket.com)
For investors doing fundamental analysis, the takeaway is: while reported earnings were off, underlying earnings power remains solid. At ~12.6x forward P/E, it’s attractively valued versus consumer staples peers trading at 15–20x.
💰 3. Cash Flow & Debt Management
Operating Cash Flow (TTM): $3.15 billion
Capital Expenditures: $1.21 billion
Free Cash Flow: $1.94 billion (~$10.96/share) (ir.cbrands.com, stockanalysis.com)
This FCF represents nearly 19% free cash flow margin, highlighting exceptional cash generation. For fundamental analysis, this strength is critical—it supports dividends, debt repayment, and share buybacks.
Cash: $68 million
Total Debt: $12.11 billion
Net Debt: $12.05 Billion
Debt-to-Equity: ~161% (simplywall.st, stockanalysis.com)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 8.5x EBIT (simplywall.st)
The fundamental analysis takes note: high leverage, but manageable thanks to strong cash flows and solid interest coverage.
📈 4. Dividends & Shareholder Return
Annual Dividend: $4.08/share → 2.53% yield (stockanalysis.com)
Dividend Growth: ~13.5% YoY; 9–10 years of consecutive increases
Payout Ratio: ~104% trailing → high, but backed by free cash flow
From a fundamental analysis perspective, the dividend is dependable and growing. The payout ratio is elevated, but excessive debt risk is tempered by cash flow strength.
🏁 5. Balance Sheet & Liquidity
Total Assets: $21.65 billion
Total Liabilities: $14.52 billion → Equity: $7.13 billion (ir.cbrands.com, simplywall.st)
Current Assets vs. Liabilities: $3.72B vs. $4.03B → Current ratio ~0.92
The fundamental analysis here is nuanced: short-term liquidity is slightly tight, while long-term stability depends on free cash flow and reducing debt over time.
🧠 Final Take – Fundamental Analysis of STZ
Strengths: High margins, strong free cash flow, stable & growing dividend, and fair valuation
Risks: High net debt, negative reported EPS, and slightly tight liquidity
Valuation: At ~12.6x forward P/E and 4.85x price-to-sales, STZ offers value for long-term investors
Cash Flow Position: Positive FCF margin (~19%), supporting strategic initiatives and shareholder returns
📊 Share Performance Analysis of STZ
A deep Share Performance Analysis of STZ reveals a turbulent yet insightful storyline. Despite some recent headwinds, this stock still resonates with smart investors looking for value and resilience.
📉 1. Current Price & 52‑Week Context
As of June 16, 2025, STZ shares closed at $162.81, down 1.26% for the day (marketwatch.com).
That puts STZ approximately 38.7% below its 52‑week high of $265.70, recorded on June 24, 2024 (marketwatch.com).
This is crucial in our Share Performance Analysis—recent share action shows a clear decline from peak levels.
⏳ 2. Recent Returns Breakdown
| Period | Return |
|---|---|
| 1 Week | –2.23% |
| 1 Month | –14.97% |
| 3 Months | –10.00% |
| YTD | –27.11% |
| 1 Year | –38.77% (marketwatch.com) |
These figures paint a compact yet powerful picture in our Share Performance Analysis: STZ has underperformed across all recent timeframes.
📈 3. Volume & Sentiment Indicators
Trading volume reached 3.6 million shares on Jun 16—well above its 50‑day average of 2.1 million (tradingview.com, marketwatch.com).
Elevated volume during down days often hints at heightened investor concern or rotation.
In a Share Performance Analysis, this spike signals that institutional holders might be repositioning, accelerating downward pressure.
💹 4. Peer Comparisons
Brown‑Forman A/B down ~0.5–2%,
Molson Coors fell ~0.3% that same day (marketwatch.com, tradingview.com).
While STZ’s fall of –1.26% shows some sector-wide weakness, its magnitude suggests STZ-specific investor anxiety—a key piece of our Share Performance Analysis.
🧾 5. Annual & Historical Trends
Stock hit all-time high of $265.70 (June 2024) (macrotrends.net).
52‑week low stands at $159.36–159.44, reached in mid‑June 2025 (moneycontrol.com).
STZ is now just off that low, which is critical context for a Share Performance Analysis: the stock may be oversold.
🌍 6. Share Performance Analysis – Outlook
This Share Performance Analysis shows:
A strike of weakness: down nearly 40% in 12 months.
Elevated volume on declines: indicates serious profit-taking or risk-off moves.
Near 52-week lows: may signal capitulation and potential for rebound.
If you’re hunting for turnaround opportunities, this Share Performance Analysis suggests that STZ may be sitting near a bottoming process—especially given its strong free cash flow and brand strength.
🧭 Moving Forward
Watch for volume trends—declining, lighter volume on dips could mean selling pressure is easing.
Look for a rebound from $160 with a sustained uptick—this would alter the Share Performance Analysis narrative from bearish to recovery.
Keep peer performance in context—if Brown‑Forman and Molson also turn positive, STZ could follow.
✅ Share Performance Analysis Summary
🔸 –38.8% year-over-year decline shows real erosion in investor confidence.
🔸 High volume on down days signals institutional repositioning.
🔸 Touching 52‑week lows could mark a psychological floor.
This Share Performance Analysis demonstrates a stock that has clearly underperformed—but quietly, some signals suggest it may be pricing in the worst, setting the stage for a rebound. If STZ shares begin to inch upward, or volume dries on declines, a shift in investor sentiment could be underway.
Let me know if you’d like me to overlay this with peer charts, model recovery scenarios, or track corporate catalysts that might turn the narrative.
🧠 Holistic Insights
Technically, STZ is in a mild correction—nothing alarming, but worth monitoring for a rebound above the 50-day moving average.
Fundamentally, it boasts a strong premium brand portfolio, consistent dividend growth (~2.5–2.6% yield), and strategic simplification of operations.
Valuation remains attractive, trading at a forward P/E of ~12.6x, suggesting upside if earnings rebound.
Risk to watch: High payout ratio, TTM EPS dip, and dependence on consumer sentiment and discretionary spending.
✅ Final Take
If you’re looking for a stable, dividend-paying stock with upside potential, Constellation Brands offers an appealing mix of income, value, and brand strength. The technical setup indicates it may be carving out a floor, while the fundamentals promise a rebound in earnings.
For income-focused investors, the 2.5%+ yield and 9-year growth streak are compelling. For value-seekers, the ~12.6x forward P/E signals room for price appreciation. And for total-return investors, a bounce off a recent dip could present entry opportunity.